The following are betting tips for the 2022 AFL Preliminary Finals. This features Geelong vs. Brisbane and Sydney vs. Collingwood.
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Geelong vs. Brisbane
Geelong have won thirteen consecutive home games against Brisbane. Twelve of those were played at GMHBA Stadium and the other was played at the SCG during Covid. Historically, Brisbane have an awful record at the MCG. Since 2015 the Lions have gone 1-12 in the head-to-head at this venue and since 2018 they have gone 1-6 at the line. Notably, the sole fixture that they won and covered the line during those periods was last week against Melbourne. Brisbane played a get out of jail card in that game, however, after they were down 22-44 at halftime. Geelong are known for being difficult to beat at GMHBA Stadium but they also boast a 11-2 record at the MCG since 2020. The Cats bring a 14-game winning streak into this clash as well as a 9-game winning streak as the home team. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.29 (Moneyball).
Brisbane have only lost one away fixture by more than 39 points over the last twelve months, so those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 1-39 at 2.12 (PlayUp).
Sydney vs. Collingwood
Sydney have won eight straight games as well as seven on the trot at home. They beat Collingwood 77-50 in August and have covered the line in each of their last four fixtures against the Magpies. In Collingwood’s favour is they have gone 4-4 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and 6-2 at the line as the away underdog. A blowout looks unlikely this weekend. All twelve of Collingwood’s away fixtures were settled by 1-39 points over the last twelve months and twelve of their last thirteen away games against Sydney were settled by the same margin range. Narrowing the margin down further, Sydney have not lost a game by more than 24 points this season and seven of Collingwood’s eight away wins were by 1-12 points. I would wager 0.7 units on Sydney 1-39 at 2.15 (PlayUp) and 0.3 units on Collingwood 1-24 at 4.50 (PlayUp).
Eight of Collingwood’s last nine wins were by 1-11 points, so those looking for more risk should consider wagering 0.8 units on Sydney 1-39 at 2.15 (PlayUp) and 0.2 units on Collingwood 1-12 at 8.00 (Moneyball).
Sydney and Collingwood have a track record of low scoring games. Just 127 points were scored in their last meeting at the SCG in August and the last six meetings between the two went under the bookmaker’s total. Coming into this game, Sydney’s last two fixtures went under the total and Collingwood’s last four fixtures went under the total. Each of Collingwood’s last four games went under 150 points. Those looking to wager on the total score market should consider under 164.5 points at 1.91 (bet365).