The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 13 of the 2022 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for Richmond vs. Port Adelaide on Thursday ngiht. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Richmond vs. Port Adelaide
Both teams are in fine form but Richmond stand out for the fact that on top of winning four of their last five games (they were unfortunate not to make it five from five), the Tigers have also covered the line in their last six games and they have covered the line in their last eight home games. Port Adelaide have won five of their last six but their two most recent games weren’t as convincing. They scored just 46 points in their defeat to Geelong and 66 points in their win over the struggling Essendon. All six of Richmond’s home wins over the last 12 months were by 1-39 points and all four of Port Adelaide’s defeats were by the same margin, so I would back Richmond 1-39 at 2.02 (Unibet).
Essendon vs. Carlton
Essendon limp into this fixture having lost six of their last seven games. Carlton have won four of their last five with their sole defeat during that run coming by a 4-point margin. Essendon have been remarkably consistent at doing as they’re told by bookmakers over the last twelve months. The Bombers have gone 6-1 as the favourite and 2-12 as the underdog during this time. Since 2021 Essendon have gone 2-7 at the MCG, while Carlton have gone 3-1 at this venue in 2022. I would back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.40 (bet365, Unibet).
Fremantle vs. Hawthorn
Fremantle have won 8 of their last 10 while Hawthorn have lost 8 of their last 10. Fremantle should win but I don’t fancy them at the -32.5 line. Six of their seven home wins over the last 12 months were by 1-39 points while four of Hawthorn’s five away defeats were by the same margin range. Hawthorn have gone 5-1 at the line as the away favourite over the last 12 months and since 2009 all four of Fremantle’s home wins over Hawthorn were by 1-39 points. I would back Fremantle 1-39 at 2.10 (bet365).
Brisbane vs. St Kilda
Brisbane have lost two of their last three and their one home win during that stretch was by 14 points over the 15th ranked GWS. St Kilda have an incredible 9-1 record at the line away from home over the last twelve months. The Saints went 7-1 at the line (home and away) as the underdog over the same period. St Kilda covered the line in their last three away fixtures against Brisbane. I would back St Kilda +17.5 at 1.91 (bet365).