The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 20 of the 2022 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for Richmond vs. Fremantle on Friday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Fremantle vs. Melbourne
Fremantle have gone 6-1-1 on the back of a game they failed to win over the last twelve months and they have won their last four home games against Melbourne. Fremantle will be without skipper Nat Fyfe but they did beat Melbourne by 38 points without him at the MCG in late May. Melbourne have an impressive 9-3 away record over the last twelve months but they have lost their last two away games.
Fremantle covered the line in eight of their last twelve games against Melbourne. Seven of Fremantle’s eight home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and Melbourne haven’t lost a game by 40+ points in over a year, so I don’t expect a blowout. I would back Fremantle 1-39 at 2.50 (BlueBet, PlayUp).
Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide
Collingwood have won nine in a row, all by 1-39 margins. Their last five wins were all by 1-11 margins, so they’re good in tight spots. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, have lost three of their last four games. This game will be played at the MCG, where Collingwood have gone 9-2 this season and Port Adelaide have gone 0-2. Bookmakers have performed well in predicting this fixture over the last decade, with Collingwood going 4-1 as the home favourite against the Power and 1-4 as the home underdog. All seven of Port Adelaide’s away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and six of those seven defeats were by 1-24 points, so another close win for Collingwood wouldn’t surprise. I would back Collingwood 1-39 at 2.28 (PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-24 at 3.30 (PlayUp).
Sydney vs. GWS
Sydney have won three on the trot, two of which were over top-8 sides, while the Giants’ flat-lining offence has failed to reach 60 points in their last three games, all of which ended in defeat by 36+ points. The Swans have won five in a row at home while the Giants have lost three straight away from home. GWS did upset Sydney by 1 point in August last year but they have regressed since then. The Giants have failed to beat a team ranked higher than 13th this season and they lost by 20 points at home to the Swans in March. Given this is a derby game I will steer clear of the line and winning margin markets and will instead back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.19 (BlueBet, PlayUp).
Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs
Geelong have won nine in a row coming into this game and they have won their last nine games as the home team against the Western Bulldogs. The Cats are also on a 5-game winning streak at the line at home. The Western Bulldogs last won at GMHBA Stadium back in 2003 and they have gone 2-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.35 (PlayUp).
Gold Coast vs. West Coast
The Suns have gone 4-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months while the Eagles have gone 1-9 away from home. Gold Coast have already beaten West Coast by 27 points in Perth this season and the last time they hosted the Eagles the Suns won by 44 points. The Suns covered the line in their last three home games against the Eagles and they covered the line in four of the five home games in which they were installed as the favourite over the last twelve months. I would back Gold Coast in the head-to-head at 1.14 (PlayUp, Unibet). Seven of the Eagles’ nine away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ and five of the Suns’ six home wins during this period were by 25+ points, so those looking for more risk should consider Gold Coast 25+ at 1.52 (PlayUp).