The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 6 of the 2022/23 English Premier League.
Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
My best bets each week are published on AusSportsTipping.com.
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Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace
Newcastle in the head-to-head at 2.04 (Moneyball)
Newcastle have gone 7-3-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and 5-1-1 as the home favourite against Crystal Palace since the Eagles were promoted in 2013. Spanning this season and the last, Newcastle bring 8-1-1 home form into this clash. The two sides that managed to avoid defeat during that run were Man City and Liverpool. Newcastle’s offensive ranks have been recently augmented by the arrival of £60m signing Alexander Isak, who marked his debut with a goal against Liverpool midweek. He also had a second strike ruled out by marginal offside ruling. Newcastle do have a few injury headaches, but this has been compensated by the drifting of their head-to-head odds out from an initial 1.72.
Newcastle 1-0 Crystal Palace correct score at 7.50 (bet365)
Despite the various changes of managers over the years, all five of Newcastle’s home wins over Palace were by 1-0 scorelines. This includes their most recent meeting in late April.
Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest in the head-to-head at 2.00 (PlayUp)
Nottingham Forest +0.5 (double chance) at 1.28 (bet365)
The fans at City Ground have created a thunderous atmosphere for Nottingham Forest this season. They have already beaten West Ham at this venue and they take on a Bournemouth side has hasn’t scored a goal since Gameweek 1. While the Cherries have had a tough schedule to start the season, it’s telling that they could only manage 5 shots against the struggling Wolves midweek, whilst conceding 17. Bournemouth have yet to record an expected goals metric above 0.59 this campaign. While Scott Parker had vented his frustration about the Bournemouth squad not being good enough – an interview that contributed towards him being sacked – Forest have signed almost twenty players during the transfer window.
Aston Villa vs. Man City
Man City in the head-to-head at 1.39 (Moneyball)
Spanning this season and the last, Aston Villa have lost five of their last six games and they have only won one of their last nine fixtures. Villa were repeatedly carved open by Arsenal midweek. They conceded 22 shots, nine of which were on goal, and were lucky not to have lost by a bigger scoreline. Aston Villa have gone 0-0-6 as the home underdog over the last twelve months and they have lost seven consecutive games to Man City. City boast a 15-5-0 record as the away favourite over the last twelve months. New striker Erling Haaland has recorded a hat-trick in each of his last two games.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 (bet365)
Man City H2H & Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 (bet365)
Spanning this season and the last, twelve of Man City’s last thirteen games went over 2.5 goals and eleven of those fixtures went over 3.5 goals. City’s last three games each saw six goals scored in total. Six of the last seven meetings between Aston Villa and Man City went over 2.5 goals. Over the last twelve months 12 out of Aston Villa’s 19 home games went over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea vs. West Ham
Chelsea in the head-to-head at 1.50 (bet365, Moneyball)
Chelsea have had a poor start to the season but most of their woes have been away from home. They remain unbeaten at Stamford Bridge this season and they managed to beat Leicester City in their last home fixture, despite going down to ten men in the 28th minute. West Ham have gone 1-0-7 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they lost their last two visits to Stamford Bridge by a combined 4 goals to nil.
Chelsea to win to nil at 2.50 (bet365)
Six of Chelsea’s last seven home wins over West Ham were to nil and 7 of the Hammers’ 10 away defeats over the last twelve months were to nil.
Brighton vs. Leicester City
NOTE: Leicester City have yet to play their midweek home fixture against Man Utd at the time of writing.
Highest scoring half: second half at 2.00 (bet365)
All four of Leicester City’s fixtures so far this season have seen more goals scored in the second half than the first. This is hardly surprising given their fixtures have seen a total of 3 first half goals compared to 13 second half goals. Brighton have yet to concede a first half goal this season.