The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 11 of the 2022 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for Collingwood vs. the Western Bulldogs. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Brisbane vs. GWS
Brisbane will have an extra edge to them this week after they fell to Hawthorn in Tasmania last round. They have a better win record on the back of a defeat compared to on the back of a win over the last 12 months, which is bad news for GWS. Brisbane have gone 9-2 at home over the last 12 months and GWS have lost seven of their ten games this season. Brisbane have a poor 1-6 home line record against GWS in recent years so I will stay clear of the -33.5 line and instead back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.16 (BlueBet. Those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane 1-39 at 2.15 (bet365, Unibet).
Geelong vs. Adelaide
The venue is important for this tip. Adelaide haven’t won at The Cattery since 2003. Geelong have gone 7-2 as the home favourite over the last 12 months while Adelaide have gone 2-8 away from home. The Crows have failed to cover the line in their last 5 away games against Geelong. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.08 (bet365, Unibet). Only 1 of Geelong’s last 8 home wins over Adelaide were by 40+ points and only 2 of the Cats’ 8 home wins over the last twelve months were by more than 40 points, so those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 1-39 at 2.50 (bet365).
Melbourne vs. Fremantle
Melbourne have won 17 games in a row spanning this season and the last. They have also won 5 of the last 7 games as the home favourite against Fremantle. Fremantle have had a good season thus far but they have stumbled in recent weeks and bring a two-game losing streak into this clash. They were beaten by 36 points at home by Collingwood last week, which isn’t ideal form for facing the Demons. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.18 (Picklebet).
West Coast vs. Western Bulldogs
West Coast have lost six straight as well as six straight at home. The Western Bulldogs have won three on the trot against West Coast and they have enjoyed a revival in form over the last few weeks. I would back the Western Bulldogs in the head-to-head at 1.09 (BlueBet).
St Kilda vs. North Melbourne
North Melbourne have lost eight on the trot and the margins of victory have been enormous. St Kilda have won 7 of their last 9 and should be far too strong for the Kangaroos this weekend. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.06 (bet365). Over the last twelve months 4 of St Kilda’s 5 home wins were by 25+ while 6 of North Melbourne’s 8 away defeats were by 25+, so those looking for more risk should consider St Kilda 25+ at 1.28 (bet365).
Port Adelaide vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide have won five of their last six games, while Essendon have lost six in a row away from home. The Bombers failed to cover the line in all six of those defeats. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.14 (Picklebet). Five of Port Adelaide’s seven home wins over the last 12 months were by 25+ points, while all seven of Essendon’s away defeats were by 25+, so those looking for more risk should consider Port Adelaide 25+ at 1.57 (bet365).