The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 5 of the 2022 AFL season.
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Brisbane vs. Collingwood
Brisbane have gone 11-2 at home over the last 12 months and they beat Collingwood 142-57 at the Gabba last year. Collingwood have a three-game losing streak against Brisbane. I would back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.19 (bet365).
North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne have a miserable 0-1-6 record as the home underdog over the last 12 months, but it’s a different story at the line. The Kangaroos have gone 7-0 at the line as the home underdog over the last 12 months, while the Western Bulldogs have gone 2-4 at the line as the away favourite. North Melbourne’s last three defeats to the Western Bulldogs were by heavy margins, however the Western Bulldogs haven’t yet found their stride this season, having made a 1-3 start to the campaign. Five of North Melbourne’s six home defeats over the last 12 months were by 1-24 points. I would back the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.20 (Sportsbet).
West Coast vs. Sydney
Since 2013 West Coast have gone 0-9 as the underdog against Sydney and 0-4 as the home underdog against the Swans. Spanning this season and the last, West Coast have are in 1-7 form with three consecutive home defeats. Lance Franklin is out for Sydney, however the Swans went 4-1 in his absence last year. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.62 (bet365). All five of Sydney’s away wins over the last 12 months were by 1-39 points, so those looking for more risk should consider Sydney 1-39 at 2.20 (Sportsbet).
St Kilda vs. Gold Coast
Since 2013 St Kilda have won six straight against Gold Coast and the Saints have gone 9-1 as the favourite against the Suns. The line has been a different story, however. St Kilda have gone 1-6 at the line in their last seven games as the favourite against Gold Coast. The Suns have covered the line in their last three games against the Saints and the last five games between the two were all settled by 1-9 points. I would back St Kilda 1-39 at 2.10 (Sportsbet).
Adelaide vs. Richmond
Three of Adelaide’s four games were settled by 1 to 4 points this season and Richmond have not been involved in a game that was won or lost by 40+ points over the last 12 months. I would back both Adelaide 1-39 at 2.70 (Sportsbet) and Richmond 1-39 at 2.30 (Sportsbet).
Essendon vs. Fremantle
Essendon have gone 8-1 as the favourite over the last 12 months and 5-1 as the home favourite. The Bombers have won five straight against Fremantle as well as five straight at home against the Dockers. Fremantle have only won 1 of their last 15 away games against Essendon. With those stats all being said, Essendon’s last five home wins over Fremantle were by 1-39 points and four of those wins were by 1-24 points. Essendon will be again without Jake Stringer but they have only lost once at home by more than 25 points over the last 12 months. I would back Essendon 1-39 at 2.43 (Unibet) and Fremantle 1-24 at 3.40 (Sportsbet). Those looking for more risk should simply back Essendon 1-39 at 2.43 (Unibet).
Hawthorn vs. Geelong
Since 2013 Geelong have gone 12-3 as the favourite against Hawthorn and 4-1 as the away favourite against the Hawks. The Cats have gone 7-1 as the away favourite over the last 12 months. Since 2021 Geelong have gone 7-1 at the MCG while Hawthorn have gone 3-2-7. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.40 (Picklebet).